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A study from Bain & Company, an Aviation Consulting Firm, foresees negative impacts on the air travel industry due to the coronavirus crisis, at least until the end of year 2023.

That study was posted on Brazilian newspaper Estado de Sao Paulo on April 19th. According to Bain & Company’s report, the majority of global airplanes are grounded due to travel restrictions such as closed borders and measures on social distancing.

It mentions that aircraft manufacturers might register a significant drop in their production numbers in the next five years. The situation might be more difficult in regards to wide-body aircrafts, production in levels pre-crisis should be expected by the end of 2023 while smaller aircraft production should start recovering by November of 2021.

Global demand for air travel should return to regular sales by the third quarter of 2022, considering the crisis would be less intense by then. According to the study, global demand should reach 70% by June and between 40 and 50% total this year.

IATA (International Air Transport Association) projects similar numbers, about 55% on passengers’ revenues.

In the case of airlines operating in Latin America, the study points out that the demand for domestic flights will return to the level it had before the crisis only in the beginning of second half of 2022. For international flights, this will not happen before June 2024.